Nigerian businesses maintained an expansionary path in August 2025, with the latest NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor showing the Current Business Index inching up to 107.3 points from 105.4 in July.
The improvement was driven by stronger activity in manufacturing, services, trade, and non-manufacturing sectors. However, these gains were tempered by a rising cost of doing business, as firms faced higher input prices, increased rents, unreliable electricity, limited access to finance, and persistent insecurity, all continuing to erode profitability.
Apart from the contraction in agriculture, the sectoral review showed improvements across industries and broader economic activities. Trade posted the strongest rebound after the previous month’s decline.
Meanwhile, Manufacturing (106.2), Non-manufacturing (116.2), Trade (114.1), and Services (103.7) all advanced in August compared to July 2025. In contrast, agriculture slipped into contraction territory, recording 95.6 index points.
Key sub-indices of the BCM, including investment, exports, access to credit, and prices, registered lower values relative to July 2025. The cost of doing business also rose in August, reversing the marginal relief of the previous month. Additionally, input prices continued to worsen during the period,” part of the report read.
The Future Business Expectation Index (the next one to three months) recorded an increase to 131.5 points in August 2025, from 126.1 points in July 2025, indicating an improved optimism about future business conditions.
The BCM indicated, “The improved outlook is driven by anticipated gains in the overall business environment, including expectations for an improved business situation, higher operating profits, a rise in production levels, increased cash flow, improved supply orders, and stronger demand conditions. Across sectors, the trade sector reflects the highest level of optimism, while the agriculture sector shows the lowest confidence in future performance.”
Commenting on the report, Stanbic IBTC stated, “Business conditions in Nigeria improved in August relative to July, as growth seen across the Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, Services, and Trade sectors was enough to neutralise the contraction witnessed by the agricultural sector in the month.
Within agriculture, crop production recorded the most significant decline, likely seasonal in nature, as August is the lean season based on Nigeria’s agricultural calendar, ahead of the main harvest season starting in September. Hence, the agricultural sector output may increase in September and October, likely due to higher output associated with the harvest season.”
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector rebounded in August after the contraction witnessed in July, supported by the food, beverage, and tobacco; textile, apparel, and footwear; wood and wood products; and pulp, paper, and paper products sub-sectors. Services (103.7 points vs. July: 101.9 points) also remained within the expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month, supported by the ongoing improvement in FX liquidity conditions, softer price pressures, and relative stability of the domestic currency.
On the Gross Domestic Product, Stanbic IBTC noted that industries in Q1:25 contributed an impressive 20.9 per cent, up from 10.4 per cent in Q4:24, in line with its estimation that industries should start contributing more to real GDP growth from 2025 amid the structural shift introduced into the sector by the operations of Dangote Refinery.
“Overall, the Nigerian economy is still on track to grow by 3.5 per cent y/y in 2025 from 3.4 per cent y/y growth seen in 2024, supported by softer inflation, improvement in FX liquidity conditions, and structural reforms,” the statement accompanying the report indicated.
