Donald Trump’s quick trip to Israel and Egypt was the victory lap he wanted.
Anyone watching the speeches he made in Jerusalem and Sharm el-Sheikh, could see a man luxuriating in his power – enjoying the applause in Israel’s parliament, and in Egypt, basking in the fact that so many heads of state and government had flown in.
One veteran diplomat in the room said it looked as if Trump saw the role of the world leaders there as extras on his film set.
Trump’s message at Sharm was, in effect, that he had created a historical turning point.
“All I’ve done all my life is deals. The greatest deals just sort of happen… That’s what happened right here. And maybe this is going to be the greatest deal of them all,” he said.
Observers might also have had the impression from the speeches that the job is done. It is not.
Without question, Trump can claim credit for the ceasefire and hostage exchange deal. Qatar, Turkey and Egypt used their leverage with Hamas to force it to accept.
That made it a joint effort, but Trump’s role was decisive.
Without his push to demand Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agreement to terms that he had previously rejected, the deal would not have been signed.
It helps to recognise what the deal is – and what it isn’t.
The agreement was for a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages for prisoners. It is not a peace agreement, or even the start of a peace process.
The next phase of the Trump 20-point plan requires an agreement filling in the gaps of the framework which declares that the Gaza Strip will be demilitarised, secured and governed by a committee including Palestinians.
It will report to a Board of Peace chaired by President Trump. Significant work needs to be done on the detail needed to make that happen.
The Gaza agreement is not a route map to peace in the Middle East, the ultimate and so far, unreachable destination.
Just as seriously, there is no evidence of the political will necessary to make a real peace deal. Most wars end with exhausted belligerents making some kind of agreement. The war in Gaza has become one of those, if as Trump has declared, it really is over.
The other way to end a war is with a total victory that lets the winners dictate the way ahead. The best example is the unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945.
Before 9 September, when Netanyahu ordered a missile strike on Qatar he seemed to still be intent on crushing Israel’s enemy so comprehensively, that Israel would be able to dictate the future of Gaza.
The strike infuriated Trump.
Qatar is one of America’s key allies in the region, and the site of the biggest US military base in the Middle East. It is also a place where his sons have been doing lucrative business. Trump dismissed Netanyahu’s justification that the target, which was missed, was the Hamas leadership, not Qatar.
For Trump, America’s interests come before Israel’s. He is not like Joe Biden, who was prepared to accept harm to America’s position in the region as the necessary price for supporting Israel.
