Energy experts and downstream operators have warned that Nigeria may witness a fresh increase in petrol and diesel prices if global crude oil prices surge above $90 per barrel amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The warning comes as hostilities in the Middle East triggered fresh volatility in the global oil market, raising concerns over the vulnerability of Nigeria’s domestic fuel pricing structure despite the country’s push for local refining.
Recent checks across major cities indicate that petrol currently sells between N824 and N880 per litre, depending on location, logistics costs, and the marketer involved, following the latest price adjustment by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The development comes after the refinery reduced its Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) gantry price by N25 per litre, lowering the ex-depot rate from N799 to N774 per litre in February 2026.
Five energy experts, in separate interviews with our correspondent on Sunday, said the recent US–Iran conflict could have far-reaching effects on global crude oil prices, warning that any sustained escalation of hostilities, particularly around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, is already feeding risk premiums into the market.
They all agreed that the development could translate into higher fuel costs for consumers if the crisis deepens. Already, global crude oil prices rose by about 10 per cent over the weekend after several oil majors reportedly halted tanker movements near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes, amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East.
The waterway links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles a significant portion of global oil shipments. Any disruption to the route is widely seen as capable of triggering supply shocks and price spikes.
As of 10 pm Sunday, Brent crude traded at $72.87 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $67.02. Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude was priced at $78.62 per barrel. Analysts warned the situation could deteriorate if the crisis escalates, pushing prices closer to the $90 benchmark.
