As Nigeria celebrates 65 years of independence, economists remain deeply divided on the country’s economic trajectory. While some highlight progress in education, infrastructure, and policy-driven recovery, others lament widespread poverty, weak industrialisation, and decades of missed opportunities that continue to cast a shadow over Africa’s largest economy, OLUWAKEMI ABIMBOLA writes
At 65, Nigeria’s report card is drawing sharply divided reviews from leading economists who are split on whether to celebrate a resilient ‘work in progress’ or lament decades of unfulfilled potential. Where one expert sees reasons to be proud, pointing to growth in education, infrastructure, and national unity. Another expert argued that with 80 per cent of the population lacking basic needs and a manufacturing sector contributing less than 10 per cent to GDP, the nation has failed to reach its potential.
At independence in 1960, the Nigerian economy was structurally heavily centred on agriculture, which was the dominant sector, contributing over half of the Gross Domestic Product, providing the majority of employment, and acting as the main source of export earnings through cash crops like cocoa, groundnuts, and palm oil. While the oil sector had been discovered, its contribution was still minimal. The overall economic activity was characterised by a reliance on primary commodities, a low per capita income and a small, uncompetitive industrial base focused on early import-substitution efforts, defining the nation as a developing country with significant growth potential that remained vulnerable to global market price fluctuations.
From then, the economy moved to the era of the oil boom, which was marked by heavy reliance on the petrodollar that has persisted to date. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Nigeria’s GDP showed that the oil sector remains a major contributor to the economy. Oil GDP expanded by 20.5 per cent YoY in Q2 ‘25, marking the strongest post-rebasing print, supported by a favourable base and higher crude output. Average production rose to 1.68 mb/d from 1.62 mb/d in the prior quarter, underpinned by tighter surveillance from greater involvement of private security contractors and deployment of monitoring technologies that have curtailed theft and strengthened pipeline integrity. Reflecting these efforts, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission disclosed that crude losses averaged 9,600 b/d YTD to July 2025, the lowest level since 2009.
However, the non-oil sector has shown positivity in recent quarters, growing 3.6 per cent YoY (vs 3.2 per cent in the prior quarter), with non-oil activities anchored by services, which expanded 3.9 per cent YoY in Q2 ‘25, supported by gains in financial services and a low-base-effect-induced recovery in transport and storage.
Commenting on the state of the economy, economist and Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Ayo Teriba, argued that while the past decade was one of decline, the current moment is cause for celebration as a unique, policy-driven success.
He said, “For the first time since independence, Nigeria is fortunate enough to be marking the anniversary on a note of economic recovery. Yes, it’s good that he can celebrate that the economy has turned the corner. The economy is in a recovery mode. The instability has come to an end. And the stagnation has come to an end.
“Connecting with 65 years is to President (Bola) Tinubu’s credit that in Nigeria’s 65 years of independence, this is the first economic recovery that is policy-induced, that is not boom-induced. All the booms that Nigeria has enjoyed in the past, without any exception, have been induced by favourable external shocks. None has been as a result of successful economic reform. The current growth itself is decoupled from the oil price. This is the first time that we have had an economic recovery, despite not having money. Despite money being our problem, the president has re-engineered the recovery. That credit, history will remember him favourably, positively.”
While highlighting that the economic decline that Nigeria suffered recently started in 2025 and played a role in the ouster of former president Goodluck Jonathan, Teriba mentioned five variables which he said were working in favour of the Tinubu presidency.
These include improvement in the external reserves, which stood at $42.32 as of Monday; secondly, the exchange rates, which closed at 1,476.34/$, also on Monday; decelerating inflation at 20.18 per cent; accelerating GDP growth of 4.2 per cent in the second quarter, ahead of projections of 3.6 per cent; and recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 27 per cent.
While Teriba hailed the Tinubu government on these fronts, he raised concerns about the inability of the current government to tackle the fiscal side of things, saying, “He has made major policy hits at the macro level. The macro is looking fine, and it’s making, you know, President Tinubu smells like roses. But he’s failing on the fiscal front. And we, who love Nigeria, will not keep quiet about that. If he says he has exceeded his non-oil revenue for the year, that’s non-oil revenue for the federation. Let’s say he tells me that in August, we have achieved N20tn in non-earning revenue. How much are you getting for the federal budget out of that N20tn? It’s not maybe more than N7tn or so. So, why are you celebrating it? You alone want to spend N55tn, so why are you celebrating N20tn? Even if all that N20tn is for the Federal Government alone, it is not enough to celebrate.
“You have a fiscal committee that has been jumping up and down for two years. They have not brought one penny in revenue to the table. They’re just taking us on a jolly ride to nowhere. We need to find revenue, and you shouldn’t be talking about tax revenue when the federal secretariat in Ikoyi is vacant. Do you know how much that thing is worth? In trillions of naira, and you are not making a penny from it. Then you want Nigerians to pay four per cent on FOB. Make money from the federal secretariat. Make money from the national stadium and leave Nigerians in peace. You don’t need tax revenue. The economy has been stagnant. People are suffering. Don’t tax them. Go and make money from the assets that we own. Go and make money from real estate and leave us alone.”
On the projects that the government is embarking on, Teriba expressed support for the superhighway and the other legacy road projects but maintained that the government needs to open up and let investors take on the burden instead of aiming to fund the projects.
“But see, if it were to do 750 kilometres of coastal highway and all it has done in two and a half years is 30 kilometres, because it has no money to award contracts. That’s not the only capital project that is delayed. It should not use recurrent income to fund capital projects. It should let investors come and fund that capital project. The way investors have funded telecoms, the way investors have funded LNG.
