Going by half-year records, Nigeria’s exports to Africa have risen 675.9 percent in naira value over six years, an almost eight-fold increase that experts say could partly reflect the naira’s depreciation rather than a comparable expansion in real export earnings. The increase points to the dominance of crude oil and petroleum products in Nigeria’s export basket, raising concerns that the country’s export growth may obscure underlying weaknesses in non-oil trade, ARINZE NWAFOR reports
Nigeria’s exports to African countries in the first half of 2026 jumped by 122.26 per cent to N10.72tn, from N4.82tn in the corresponding period of 2025, as crude oil and related petroleum products grew more dominant amid experts’ warning that the situation is masking the naira illusion.
Findings from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade in goods reports for the first two quarters of 2026 show that crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea jointly accounted for 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in H1 2026, valued at about N10.15tn, up from a 90.24 per cent share, valued at N4.35tn, in H1 2025.
The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, faster than the 122.26 per cent overall growth in exports to Africa, meaning the surge in trade with the continent was driven disproportionately by petroleum products rather than the non-oil exports that the Federal Government has championed.
By contrast, identifiable non-oil products in the two periods, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, fell in value, from about N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026, a decline of 4.15 per cent, even as total exports to Africa nearly doubled. Their share of total exports to the continent nearly halved, from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent, over the same period.
The oil-versus-non-oil breakdown figures are estimates by The PUNCH, based on the top 14 to 15 product lines disclosed in the NBS’s quarterly top-traded-products data for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 and 2026, as the NBS does not separately publish a full per-product breakdown of total exports to Africa.
The trend comes amid the Federal Government’s push for non-oil exports and the entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery into the export market.
