Nigeria’s annual average inflation is projected to decline significantly to 15.6 per cent in 2026 before easing further to 14.7 per cent in 2027, according to the latest economic assessment by the International Monetary Fund.
This expected slowdown marks a noticeable deceleration from the elevated 23.0 per cent average inflation recorded in 2025.
Economic analysts at Coronation Research highlight that key macro stabilisation measures are actively contributing to this cooling trend. Specifically, increased exchange rate stability alongside growing domestic refining capacity is playing a central role in moderating persistent domestic price pressures across supply chains.
Despite this encouraging downward trajectory, persistent risks could temper the speed of relief for businesses and consumers.
In its evaluation of the macroeconomic environment, Coronation Research noted, “Exchange rate stability and increased domestic refining capacity could help moderate price pressures. However, higher energy and fertiliser costs, alongside election-related spending, may slow the pace of disinflation”.
