The International Monetary Fund has warned that rising prices of essential goods could deepen poverty and worsen food insecurity in Nigeria despite recent improvements in the country’s macroeconomic stability.
The warning was contained in the IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, which projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, while cautioning that higher prices for basic necessities could offset some of the gains from ongoing economic reforms.
According to the report, released on Wednesday, Nigeria has continued to benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and stronger terms of trade, but households remain vulnerable to rising living costs.
The report read, “Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity.”
The IMF noted that growth across sub-Saharan Africa was expected to remain broadly stable at 4.3 per cent in 2026, although performance would vary widely among countries depending on policy choices, reform implementation and exposure to external shocks.
It said oil-importing and non-resource-intensive economies in the region were likely to suffer more from rising energy and food prices, while some larger economies had benefited from earlier stabilisation efforts despite facing weaker official development assistance and missing out on much of the artificial intelligence-driven global technology boom.
The Fund retained its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth at 4.1 per cent in 2026, unchanged from its April outlook, and projected a further increase to 4.3 per cent in 2027.
